World Bank Projects Nigeria’s Economy to Sustain 4.4% Growth Through 2028 as Reforms Gain Momentum.
The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will maintain stronger growth in the coming years, with average annual expansion expected to reach about 4.4 per cent through 2028, provided the government sustains ongoing economic reforms and improves the delivery of public services.
The projection reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic conditions. According to the World Bank, the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period in 2025. Services and agriculture were identified among the major drivers of the expansion.
The World Bank’s latest outlook also points to a gradual improvement in inflation, with the rate expected to decline towards 12 per cent by 2028 from about 15 per cent. The lender, however, stressed that achieving sustained economic gains will depend on continued implementation of reforms and stronger public sector performance.
Recent reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and changes to the foreign exchange system, have helped strengthen government revenues and create additional fiscal space. The World Bank said the increased resources could provide greater opportunities for investment in infrastructure, education, healthcare and other areas essential to improving living standards.
Despite the positive outlook, the lender has cautioned that stronger headline growth alone will not automatically translate into improved welfare for Nigerians. It has called for more efficient public spending, greater investment in human capital, improved infrastructure, private sector development and stronger job creation to ensure that economic expansion becomes more inclusive.
The World Bank also reported that revenues available to Nigeria’s state governments increased significantly between 2023 and 2025, but urged states to improve spending efficiency and direct more resources towards productive investments that can reduce poverty and raise living standards.
The latest forecast therefore presents both an opportunity and a policy challenge for Nigeria. Sustaining economic stability while translating growth into jobs, affordable services and improved household incomes will remain critical to determining whether the projected expansion delivers meaningful benefits for citizens.