FG Moves To Launch National Baseline Survey On Illicit Arms As Nigeria Intensifies Security Response!

Reported by Musa Antiketu,| Journalist at Obaland magazine.

The Federal Government of Nigeria is preparing to conduct a new National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons (SALW) as part of broader efforts to strengthen the country’s response to insecurity and the proliferation of illegal firearms.

Ogun Police Arrest Two Suspected Robbers, Recover Three Pistols and 18 Cartridges.

João Cancelo Returns to Barcelona on Free Transfer, Signs Until 2029.

The proposed survey is expected to generate updated, evidence-based information on the scale, distribution and dynamics of illicit arms in Nigeria, providing policymakers and security agencies with data that can guide more effective arms-control strategies.

The initiative is being led by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW), with support from the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA). According to a report by TheCable, the cooperation was discussed during a visit by UNODA Deputy High Representative Adedeji Ebo to the centre, where he met senior Nigerian security officials, including the National Security Adviser, Minister of Defence, Inspector-General of Police and the NCCSALW leadership.

The survey is expected to involve methodological assistance from relevant international institutions through a training-of-trainers approach. The objective is not merely to produce statistics but to strengthen Nigeria’s institutional capacity to collect, analyse and use information on illicit arms.

Why the survey matters

The proliferation of small arms and light weapons remains a significant security challenge across Nigeria and the wider West African region. Illicit firearms can facilitate terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence, armed robbery and other forms of organised crime.

Reliable data is therefore critical to understanding where illicit weapons are concentrated, how they enter circulation, the factors driving demand and the effectiveness of existing control measures.

The renewed survey also comes against the backdrop of longstanding concerns about the availability of illicit firearms in Nigeria. In an interview reported by TheCable, UNODA’s Adedeji Ebo said estimates place the number of small arms in circulation in Nigeria at between one million and three million, while stressing the importance of improved national data and cooperation on arms control.

However, estimates of illicit firearms in Nigeria vary considerably depending on methodology and the period examined. This makes a properly designed national baseline survey particularly important because it could provide a more consistent evidence base for future government policies.

Data-driven security strategy

The Federal Government’s proposed initiative reflects a growing recognition that combating illicit arms trafficking requires more than seizures and arrests.

A comprehensive evidence-gathering exercise could help authorities identify trafficking routes, sources of illegal weapons, patterns of possession and areas particularly vulnerable to firearms-related violence.

It could also strengthen cooperation among the police, military, customs authorities, intelligence agencies, border-management institutions and other stakeholders responsible for arms control.

Nigeria has previously undertaken research and assessments relating to small arms proliferation. Earlier studies highlighted challenges including weak data systems, inadequate information-sharing mechanisms, porous borders and the diversion of legally held weapons into illicit circulation.

A West African study on small arms trafficking, for example, identified poor data collection and record-keeping as among the institutional weaknesses affecting efforts to control illicit arms flows in the region.

International and regional cooperation

The planned survey is also linked to Nigeria’s wider obligations and commitments under international and African arms-control frameworks.

Nigeria has reaffirmed its commitment to initiatives including the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the continental Silencing the Guns initiative. A recent Nigerian statement to the United Nations also referenced national weapons marking, a baseline survey, development of a national database, firearms legislation review and training for security agencies as components of the country’s arms-control efforts.

UNODA’s proposed support could consequently help Nigeria strengthen both its domestic capabilities and its cooperation with neighbouring countries facing similar cross-border arms-trafficking challenges.

The importance of regional coordination is particularly relevant because illicit weapons do not respect national borders. Trafficking networks can exploit land borders, informal routes and other weaknesses in border-control systems to move firearms across West Africa.

Beyond statistics

For the survey to have a meaningful impact, its findings will need to translate into practical policy.

This could include stronger weapons-marking and tracing systems, improved border surveillance, better management of government arms stockpiles, more effective intelligence-sharing and targeted programmes for the voluntary surrender and recovery of illicit weapons.

The government will also need to ensure that the methodology is transparent, nationally representative and sufficiently robust to distinguish between legally held firearms, illicitly possessed weapons and weapons diverted from authorised stocks.

The initiative is therefore potentially significant not only as a research exercise but as a foundation for a more coordinated national arms-control policy.

For Obaland magazine, the success of the proposed survey should ultimately be measured by whether its findings lead to concrete interventions capable of reducing the availability and misuse of illicit firearms and improving public safety.

Nigeria’s security challenges are complex, and no single intervention can resolve them. Nevertheless, credible and regularly updated data can provide policymakers with the evidence required to target resources, identify gaps and assess whether existing interventions are producing measurable results.

Sources

Nigeria is preparing a new National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons to strengthen data-driven security policies, arms control and efforts against illegal firearms.