Atiku and Obi’s Political Ambitions Risk Splitting the Opposition Ahead of 2027

The recent public spat between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi has reopened questions about unity and strategy in Nigeria’s opposition ahead of the 2027 elections.

In an interview on Arise TV, Atiku criticized Obi’s political base as narrow and ethnic, and dismissed Rabiu Kwankwaso’s influence outside Kano. The remarks have raised doubts about Atiku’s coalition-building approach, especially after his 2023 loss was partly blamed on the PDP split that saw Obi and Kwankwaso exit to run separately.

Sources suggest Atiku may be pushing for a three-way race that favors him as the dominant northern candidate. If so, the plan appears to have backfired. Obi and Kwankwaso’s exit from the African Democratic Congress and move to the Nigeria Democratic Congress has weakened the ADC and positioned the NDC as a new third force.

Obi’s shift marks his fifth party change since 2014, moving from PDP to APGA, back to PDP, then Labour, ADC, and now NDC. Kwankwaso, who left the New Nigeria Peoples Party after a rift with Kano Governor Abba Yusuf, appears aligned with Obi for 2027 but is widely seen to be positioning for 2031. Reports indicate Kwankwaso’s talks with President Bola Tinubu stalled over disagreements on succession timing.

Atiku’s own political history mirrors this pattern of party-hopping. Since 1999, he has moved between PDP, Action Congress, and APC before returning to PDP, and now ADC, which he is accused of taking over for his presidential bid.

Beyond the personal ambitions, the article argues that the opposition’s disunity undermines its ability to challenge the APC. The author contrasts this with President Tinubu’s consistent alignment within the progressive camp over multiple election cycles.

The piece also highlights ongoing federal projects in the North West, including the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano highway, the Kaduna-Kano-Jigawa-Katsina-Maradi railway, and upgrades to hospitals and skills centers. It frames these as evidence of the Tinubu administration’s commitment to regional development and as a counter to claims of northern marginalization.

With Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso pursuing separate paths, the opposition risks repeating its 2023 fragmentation. Unless it builds a unified front, the ruling APC retains a clear advantage going into 2027.