Reported by Musa Antiketu, | Journalist at Obaland magazine.
LAGOS, NIGERIA — The Founder and Spiritual Leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, has declared that the outcome of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election will be determined by voters in Northern Nigeria, not by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
Speaking during his annual press briefing in Lagos on Tuesday, Primate Ayodele said the political direction of the country has shifted and that any candidate seeking Aso Rock in 2027 must first secure the mandate of the North. He also warned INEC against manipulation, saying the commission’s credibility will be tested more than ever before.
“The North holds the key to 2027,” Primate Ayodele said. “It is not INEC that will decide. It is the people of Northern Nigeria. If they vote together, no power can stop them. If they are divided, then the election will be open.”
The statement comes 30 months before the next general elections and has already sparked debate among political analysts, civil society groups, and party strategists across the country. For Obaland Magazine, the comment reflects a larger conversation about regional voting blocs, electoral integrity, and the evolving dynamics of Nigerian democracy ahead of 2027.
What Primate Ayodele Said: Full Context of the Prophecy
Primate Ayodele is known in Nigeria for his yearly prophecies on politics, economy, and security. While many of his predictions are controversial, they are widely reported and discussed ahead of major national events.
At the 2026 edition of his briefing, the cleric dedicated a significant portion to the 2027 elections.
“Northern voters will decide 2027, not INEC,” he stated. “INEC can only count what people bring to the table. If the North speaks with one voice, the presidency will go there. If they scatter, then southern candidates have a chance.”
He added that INEC must remain neutral and resist pressure from the ruling party and opposition. “INEC should not become a weapon. If they do, there will be crisis. Nigeria cannot afford another flawed election.”
Primate Ayodele also warned political parties against relying on “godfathers and money” alone. “2027 will be about hunger, insecurity, and education. The candidate who addresses these will get Northern support.”
The cleric did not endorse any specific candidate or party. Instead, he urged Nigerians to begin voter education now and for the North to decide whether it wants to continue producing presidents or support a power shift.
Why the North Matters in Nigerian Elections: The Numbers
To understand Primate Ayodele’s statement, one must look at Nigeria’s electoral arithmetic.
Nigeria has 36 states and the FCT. For presidential elections, a candidate must win a plurality of votes and secure at least 25% in two-thirds of states.
According to data from INEC and the National Population Commission, Northern Nigeria comprises 19 states and the FCT more than half of Nigeria’s 37 voting units. In the 2023 presidential election, over 52% of registered voters were in the North.
In 2015 and 2019, the North voted overwhelmingly for President Muhammadu Buhari, delivering the margin of victory. In 2023, the vote split between APC, PDP, and NNPP candidates, which analysts say contributed to a closer race won by President Bola Tinubu with strong support from the Southwest and parts of the North.
Political scientist Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim of the Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, explains: “No one wins the Nigerian presidency without significant Northern votes. That has been true since 1999. The North is not a monolith, but when there is regional consensus, it is decisive.”
This is the reality Primate Ayodele was referencing. His point was not new to political strategists, but his framing “not INEC” directly addresses public skepticism about electoral management.
INEC and Public Trust Ahead of 2027
The Independent National Electoral Commission has faced criticism after the 2023 general elections. Issues cited included late arrival of materials, BVAS glitches, and delays in uploading results to the IReV portal.
Several petitions went to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal and the Supreme Court. While the courts upheld the election of President Tinubu, the process left many Nigerians questioning the system.
A 2024 Afrobarometer survey found that only 38% of Nigerians expressed “a lot” or “some” trust in INEC, down from 54% in 2019.
Primate Ayodele’s comment taps into that sentiment. By saying “voters, not INEC, will decide,” he was both warning the commission and encouraging citizens.
INEC Chairman Prof. Mahmood Yakubu has repeatedly said the commission is working to improve. In a recent briefing covered by Channels Television and Premium Times, he said INEC has begun early preparations for 2027, including voter register clean-up and procurement of new BVAS machines.
“Elections are determined by voters,” Prof. Yakubu said. “Our job is to provide a level playing field.”
Civil society groups like Yiaga Africa and the Transition Monitoring Group have also called for electoral reforms before 2027, including early transmission of results and stricter sanctions for electoral offenders.
Northern Politics in 2026: Unity or Division?
The North is not politically uniform. It includes the Northwest, Northeast, and North Central, with diverse ethnic, religious, and economic interests.
Key factors shaping Northern voting in 2027 include:
1. Economy and Security: Banditry, kidnapping, and farmer-herder clashes remain major issues in the Northwest and North Central. Inflation and food prices are also top concerns.
2. Power Rotation Debate: Some Northern leaders argue it is the turn of the North to produce the president again in 2027, while others say the South should complete 8 years.
3. Party Realignment: The APC, PDP, NNPP, and Labour Party are all courting Northern governors and traditional rulers. Defections are expected to increase from late 2026.
4. Youth Vote: With over 60% of Nigerians under 35, youth mobilization in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Benue will be critical.
Dr. Amina Nurudeen, a lecturer in Political Science at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, told Obaland Magazine: “The North will not vote as a bloc automatically. It will depend on candidates, issues, and which party can manage the economy better. But yes, the numbers are there.”
The Sultan of Sokoto, His Eminence Sa’ad Abubakar, and the Northern Governors Forum have not made any official pronouncements on 2027. However, behind-the-scenes consultations are already underway, according to reporting by Daily Trust and The Guardian Nigeria.
Reactions to Primate Ayodele’s Statement
The statement has drawn mixed reactions.
APC Chieftains said the North remains a stronghold of the ruling party but warned against complacency. “We are working to deliver on security and agriculture so Northerners will vote for continuity,” an APC National Working Committee member told The Punch.
PDP Leaders said the North is open to alternatives. “People are suffering. If we present a credible candidate with a clear economic plan, the North will listen,” a PDP Board of Trustees member said.
Civil Society: Yiaga Africa Executive Director Samson Itodo said the focus should be on INEC’s independence. “Whether it is North or South, votes must count. That is what democracy requires.”
Religious Leaders: The Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, and Jama’atu Nasril Islam, JNI, have both called for peaceful campaigns and warned against religious profiling in 2027.
On social media, the hashtag NorthernVote2027 trended for 24 hours after the prophecy. Many users debated whether regional voting helps or hurts national unity.
The Pan-African Context: Elections, Ethnicity, and Democracy
Across Africa, elections are often shaped by regional and ethnic blocs. In Kenya, the “mountain vote” and “Nyanza vote” are discussed openly. In Ghana, the Ashanti and Volta regions are key battlegrounds. In South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng determine outcomes.
Nigeria is no different. But the difference is scale. With over 93 million registered voters, Nigeria’s election is the largest democratic exercise on the continent.
The African Union and ECOWAS have both urged Nigeria to strengthen institutions ahead of 2027. In a 2025 report, the AU Election Observation Mission said Nigeria should “depoliticize INEC and improve transparency.”
Primate Ayodele’s message, whether viewed as prophecy or political commentary, fits into this broader African conversation: how do we ensure that votes, not institutions or money, decide leaders?
What Needs to Happen Before 2027: 5 Key Issues
Based on interviews with analysts and stakeholders, Obaland Magazine identifies five issues that will shape whether “Northern voters decide 2027”:
1. Electoral Reform: The National Assembly is expected to review the Electoral Act to address IReV transmission and party primaries.
2. Security: The Federal Government must reduce banditry and insurgency in the North to enable free voting.
3. Economy: Inflation, food prices, and unemployment will drive voter anger or approval.
4. Candidate Selection: Both APC and PDP are yet to zone their tickets. Who emerges will influence regional alignment.
5. Voter Education: INEC and NGOs must educate voters on PVC collection, voting procedures, and rejecting vote-buying.
INEC’s Response and Preparationso
INEC has said it is not distracted by prophecies or political statements. In a statement to Vanguard News, an INEC National Commissioner said: “We are focused on our mandate. We will conduct free, fair, and credible elections.”
The commission has set up a 2027 Election Plan
Conclusion: The Ballot, Not Prophecy, Will Decide
Primate Ayodele’s declaration that “Northern Voters Will Decide 2027, Not INEC” is both a political observation and a call to action.
It is an observation because Nigeria’s electoral history shows the importance of Northern votes. It is a call to action because it puts responsibility back on citizens: to register, to vote, and to hold leaders accountable.
For INEC, the message is clear protect your independence. For political parties, the message is go to the North with solutions, not just slogans. For voters, the message is your PVC matters more than any prophecy.
As Nigeria moves closer to 2027, Obaland Magazine will continue to monitor developments with an independent, factual, and Pan-African lens. Elections are not just about who wins. They are about whether the process reflects the will of the people.
Whether the North votes as one bloc or splits, whether INEC delivers a credible poll or not, one thing is certain: 2027 will define the next decade of Nigerian democracy.
The countdown has begun.
Primate Ayodele says Northern voters will decide Nigeria’s 2027 election, not INEC. Obaland Magazine analyzes the prophecy, electoral data, INEC’s role, and what it means for Nigerian democracy.
